The five charts that accompany this piece trace the regional divergence in U.S. housing production over the past decade and what the divergence implies for the affordability picture across regions. The data sources are public; the analytical work synthesises them into a clearer picture than the individual data sets produce on their own.

Chart one

The first chart maps housing-permit volume by state across the past decade, indexed to the state's population. The patterns are striking. The Sun Belt and Mountain West states have permitted construction at rates that approach or exceed historical averages; the coastal states with the most acute affordability pressures have permitted at meaningfully lower rates.

Chart two

The second chart layers in the affordability data. The states that have permitted at higher rates show smaller increases in the affordability-stress index over the decade; the states that have permitted at lower rates show larger increases. The relationship is direct.

Chart three

The third chart breaks down the production by structure type. The Sun Belt and Mountain West permitting has skewed toward single-family construction; the urban-coastal permitting that has happened has skewed toward multifamily. The composition matters for the affordability question.

Chart four

The fourth chart traces the price-per-square-foot pattern across the same period. The states that have permitted more have, on average, kept price-per-square-foot growth closer to the inflation rate; the states that have permitted less have seen price-per-square-foot growth that has substantially outpaced inflation.

Chart five

The fifth chart shows the migration patterns that the broader picture has produced. Net migration has flowed from the lower-permitting states to the higher-permitting states at rates that exceed historical patterns; the migration is itself one of the affordability-relief mechanisms at the national level.

What the charts together show

What the charts together show is that the housing-affordability picture is, at the national level, more about where construction is happening than about whether it is happening overall. The country is producing housing; the housing is being produced in places that are not always the places where the demand most exceeds the supply.